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Audi has missed so many chances to leapfrog Tesla

We may soon reach "peak ICE" output. So the question is: "How do we make money in a declining market when our costs are going up?" But this peak will not be in total vehicle production. Two wheeled EVs are nowhere near their peak, and may become the preferred mode of personal transport in urban areas. But VAG will go bust if they designed bikes to replace cars!

There is an arms race right now for two key technologies: Printable solar cells with near 40% efficiency and safe batteries with 2-3X power density over Liion cells with low production costs. These be astonishingly profitable, have geo-political consequences and will change everything. Following close behind is research into district sized liquid power cells storing huge amounts of electricity locally at above 98% efficiency, and cheap local hydrogen production from solar powered reactions cracking water or methane. I predict all of these solutions will emerge into the market in the next few years, and the automotive giants will be have no stake in any of them. Free and clean fuel is disruptive technology on steroids and is unstoppable. Smaller and more agile operators who have their fingers on the pulse (like Tesla) will surge in value, while others will crash and burn.