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5 things you need to know in SA business today and why Bitcoin bulls may have to wait 22 years for the cryptocurrency to return to all-time highs

1. Consumer inflation rose to 4.5% in March from 4.1% in February, Stats SA announced yesterday. This was mainly due to higher fuel prices. Meanwhile, retail sales increased a paltry 1.1% in the year to February – but this was stronger than what economist expected.

2. After five months, the AMCU strike at Sibanye-Stillwater mines is finally over . It cost the company R1.6 billion, and nine people died in strike-related violence.

In the end, Amcu accepted the same three-year wage agreement that three other unions signed last year. Sibanye will pay its members R4,000 in cash or a voucher, and give them a loan of R5,000, repayable over the next year. It will also provide debt counselling, provide transport to employees to return to work and waive rights to reclaim costs incurred during the strike.

Any employees dismissed for strike related misconduct will be subject to normal disciplinary proceedings.

As AMCU and Sibanye-Stillwater sign a revised agreement, the President looks forward to constructive engagement with mine management and increased safety measures at the mine going forward. #AMCU #SocialJustice #QinaMsebenzi pic.twitter.com/771rnyAAjq

— Amcu (@_AMCU) April 17, 2019 3. The Numsa strike at Comair, which operates Kulula and British Airways SA, will start today at lunchtime - ahead of the busy Easter weekend. Comair has contingency plans that could prevent the grounding of flights.

4. Clicks' share price jumped 4% yesterday after strong (under tough circumstances) half-year results . Sales rose by more than 6%, while its headline profit is up 13%. In the past six months, it opened 18 more pharmacies - it now has 528 pharmacies, and almost a quarter of SA's retail pharmacy market.

5. The long-suffering Mediclinic share price rocketed by almost 8% after a stronger-than-expected trading update. It still looks pretty bleak, though. While its South African and Middle Eastern revenue increased, its hospitals in the UK and Switzerland are not doing well and dragging its profits lower.

Why Bitcoin bulls may have to wait 22 years for the cryptocurrency to return to all-time highs Reported by Arjun Reddy

Bitcoin has rallied more than 40% year to date, taking the controversial cryptocurrency above $5,000 , though the reasons for the price spike are not immediately clear .

Despite the recent rally, the broader collapse of the cryptocurrency has largely followed the path of previous bubbles, according to data compiled by UBS analyst Kevin Dennean.

As shown in the chart below, the bitcoin collapse is indexed to other well-known bubbles such as crashes of the Dow Jones in 1929, the Nikkei in 1989, the NASDAQ in 2000, Oil in 2008 and Shanghai A-shares in 2015.

Dennean said crypto-bulls point to other bubbles and recoveries as a template for bitcoin's return prospects."The argument here is that bitcoin has gone through its bubble phase and is ready to rise phoenix-like from the ashes just as other assets and indices did in the past," writes Dennean in the research note.

However, those waiting for a crypto-recovery may have a long time to wait before bitcoin reaches previous peaks.

"We're struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels (as long as 22 years for the Dow Jones Industrials) and how pedestrian the annualized returns from trough to the recovery often are," Dennean wrote.

With the exception of Shanghai, all the asset classes (including Bitcoin) collapsed by more than 75% from peak, with only the Dow Jones and NASDAQ recovering to previous levels. Nearly 30 years after the collapse of the Nikkei, the index has still not recovered and currently trades at about half its peak level.

"Maybe crypto-bull contingents should consider what happens after the bubble - not every bubble that bursts recovers the old highs," Dennean wrote.

FactSet, coinmarketcap.com, UBS

Bitcoin is up 40% year to date and 74% down from its all-time high of $19,783.21 reached in December, 2017.

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